CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z THU 10/03 - 06Z FRI 11/03 2005
ISSUED: 09/03 19:35Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across northeastern Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

East of high geopotential over northern Atlantic, cold and rather stable airmass dominates Europe. Coldest airmass is present in the range of eastern European trough that moves eastward during the forecast period, while low-level cold airmass is expected to spread into northeastern Mediterranean. Rather stable maritime airmass spread eastward over northwestern Europe.

DISCUSSION

...Northeastern Mediterranean...
Cold air advection is forecast during the period over the Balkans, Greece, and Aegean. As very cold airmass spreading southward behind a cold front should be rather stable, airmass over the Aegean should be characterized by steep low-level lapse rates as 850 hPa temperature is forecast below 0°C over rather warm (15°C) sea surface. Low-level moisture should be sufficient for weak CAPE. Along the propagating cold front, models suggest QG UVM... and showers and thunderstorms are expected. Given rather strong vertical speed shear ... with 15 m/s wind speed at 850 hPa ... locally high low-level SRH is not ruled out. In combination with low-level steep lapse rates and expected low LCL heights along the cold front/occlusion ... chance for tornadoes should be slightly enhanced.

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